Win RatesDataKlondikeFreeCellSpider

Solitaire Win Rates: Every Game Compared

What percentage of deals are actually winnable? We break down win rates for every major solitaire variant, explain what the numbers mean, and tell you which games reward skill vs. luck.

Nicholas Marks
8 min read

Not all solitaire games are created equal. FreeCell is solvable 99.999% of the time. Pyramid Solitaire under classic rules is winnable less than 2% of the time. Klondike Turn 1 sits somewhere in the middle at roughly 35–45%. Here's a complete breakdown of win rates across every major variant — with what each number actually means for your play experience.

What "Win Rate" Actually Means

There are two ways to measure win rates and they produce very different numbers:

  1. Theoretical win rate: The percentage of deals that are winnable by a perfect player with perfect information. This is a mathematical property of the shuffled deck.
  2. Practical win rate: The percentage of deals a real human player actually wins, including suboptimal moves and incomplete information.

The numbers below are theoreticalunless noted. A real player's win rate will always be lower — sometimes dramatically so.

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For Klondike Turn 1, the theoretical win rate is estimated at 79–91% (by computer search assuming perfect play and full information). The practical win rate for human players is 35–45%. That gap — 45+ percentage points — is entirely skill and information.

Klondike Solitaire

Turn 1 (draw one)

~79–91%

Theoretical max

~35–45%

Human practical

~9–21%

Unwinnable deals

Medium

Difficulty

Turn 1 is the most forgiving Klondike variant. Drawing one card at a time gives you more information and more flexibility. Most unwinnable deals are lost due to buried Aces that can't be reached — not bad play.

Turn 3 (draw three)

~82–91%

Theoretical max

~11–18%

Human practical

~8–18%

Unwinnable deals

Hard

Difficulty

Turn 3 is paradoxically more winnable in theory (because a perfect player can plan around the cyclic stock) but far harder in practice. The gap between theoretical and practical is the largest of any variant. Human players win only 1-in-6 deals on average.

⚠️
When Microsoft Solitaire ran on real-money gambling mode in the 1990s, casinos used Turn 3 precisely because the low practical win rate made it profitable for the house.

FreeCell

99.999%

Theoretical max

~80–95%

Human practical

~0.001%

Unwinnable deals

Medium

Difficulty

FreeCell is the closest thing to a "fair" solitaire game. Every card is face-up from move one, so there's no hidden information. Of the first 32,000 standard deals, only one (deal #11982) is provably unsolvable. With good strategy and patience, 80–95% of deals are completeable by human players.

💡
FreeCell is the best game to practice if you want to improve at solitaire generally. Because there's no luck once the cards are dealt, every win is earned and every loss is instructive.

Spider Solitaire

1-Suit Spider

~99%+

Theoretical max

~60–70%

Human practical

Easy

Difficulty

2-Suit Spider

~50–70%

Theoretical max

~25–40%

Human practical

Medium

Difficulty

4-Suit Spider

~20–30%

Theoretical max

~5–15%

Human practical

Hard

Difficulty

Spider's win rate depends almost entirely on the suit count. Adding more suits creates dramatically more blocked positions. With 4 suits, the probability of a deal with no winning path at all increases sharply — meaning luck of the draw matters more than in FreeCell.

Pyramid Solitaire

~0.5–2%

Theoretical max

~0.5–2%

Human practical

Hard

Difficulty

Pyramid has the lowest win rate of any popular solitaire variant. Most deals are mathematically unwinnable — the required pairs (summing to 13) simply don't appear in accessible positions. When a deal is winnable, an experienced player can usually find the winning line, so the theoretical and practical win rates nearly converge.

Winning Pyramid Solitaire is less about skill and more about recognizing a winnable deal quickly, then executing correctly. The game is a puzzle, not a strategy exercise.

TriPeaks Solitaire

~70–85%

Theoretical max

~45–60%

Human practical

Easy

Difficulty

TriPeaks is the most beginner-friendly game with a meaningful win rate challenge. Most deals are winnable, but poor chain management can turn a winnable deal into a loss quickly. Skill matters substantially — the gap between a novice and an experienced player is 20–30 percentage points.

Canfield

~30–35%

Theoretical max

~5–15%

Human practical

~3% payout rate

Original casino

Hard

Difficulty

Canfield was the original casino solitaire game — players paid $1 per card and were paid $5 for each card moved to the foundations. At a ~3% practical win rate per card, the house had a massive edge. Modern play with better information produces higher practical rates, but it remains one of the hardest standard variants.

Other Variants at a Glance

GameTheoreticalHuman PracticalKey Factor
Golf Solitaire~40–60%~20–35%Column layout luck
Yukon Solitaire~60–75%~30–40%Sequence planning
Forty Thieves~10–15%~2–5%Two decks, strict rules
La Belle Lucie~5–15%~2–5%Redeal limit
Gaps Solitaire~5–10%~3–7%Shuffle order
Scorpion~40–55%~10–20%Hidden card timing
Baker's Dozen~80–90%~40–55%Initial sort

Skill vs. Luck: What the Numbers Tell Us

The gap between theoretical and practical win rates is the clearest measure of skill in solitaire. A large gap means skill matters a lot; a small gap means the deal mostly determines the outcome.

GameSkill GapVerdict
Klondike Turn 3~65–70%Mostly skill (given a winnable deal)
Klondike Turn 1~40–50%Skill-dominant
FreeCell~5–20%Almost pure skill
TriPeaks~20–35%Skill-dominant
Spider 4-Suit~15–20%Mixed
Pyramid~0%Luck-dominant
Forty Thieves~8–10%Mixed
ℹ️
The takeaway:If you want a game where you control your destiny, play FreeCell. If you want a fair mix of luck and skill, Klondike Turn 1 or TriPeaks are ideal. If you want a pure puzzle that's mostly determined by the deal, Pyramid is your game.

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